Readers of this newsletter and of Mikhail’s The Last Pioneer will know that we have talked about the possibility that the US would put boots on the ground in Venezuela for months.
As Mikhail points out: we weren’t talking rubbish! He was hearing from his sources in Moscow that there was anxiety inside the Kremlin that America was serious in its bid for regime change in Caracas. I was hearing the same thing from US sources who were very close to last night’s military operation. (I reported in depth on Venezuela when I was at CNN in 2019 and 2020 and I have remained fascinated by the politics in and around the country since then).
The reason behind our particular focus: the price of oil and Russia’s dependence on it. As Mikail explains here, Putin is operating on the assumption he can ultimately get the sanctions on Russian oil eased. But if, under American operation, Venezuela’s oil supply - and its reserve - become plentiful, well then, the entire market shifts - and Russian oil becomes much less valuable. (Mikhail points out it is already trading at a steep discount).
He also points out that Putin and the Kremlin have been uncharacteristically silent about the events of last night. Why?
If Russia’s economy is weakened, well, obviously that’s a very big deal for Ukraine….
When we hear what Putin has to say about Maduro’s ousting - we’ll be back with more reporting.
Thank you Jeanne Elbe, Independent Voter 1, Christina Gurchinoff, Cat Wilson RN, Shirley Figueroa, and many others for tuning into my live video with Mikhail Zygar! Join me for my next live video in the app.
