Hey Everyone,
There’s no one better than Joel Rubin, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for House Affairs under Obama, to break down where we are with the war in Iran.
The motif of today’s discussion is: “Trump appears to keep on squandering his leverage.”
Joel argues that he did it with Iran, by backing off from applying military pressure (albeit for understandable reasons).
Trouble is, Trump now finds himself boxed in, because he wants the Iranians to agree to a ceasefire and to opening the straits of Hormuz and to getting rid of their enriched uranium but without paying them anything. And there’s the rub.
Because if he offers sanctions relief or any financial assistance, he risks opening himself up to the same criticism that he heaped on Obama - who offered sanctions relief in exchange for an agreement to not build a bomb.
If he capitulates and does strike an Obama-type deal, will the Democrats try to fight him on a solution with Iran because of this, in an effort to press political advantage ahead of the midterms? It’s a possibility, says Joel. We both hope not, however.
We move on to the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainians have just bombed St Petersburg - right before Putin hosts his economic summit there - the Russian version of Davos. Reportedly, the far-right lunatics Candace Owens and Andrew Tate are there as guests of the Kremlin….to which, no words. But I promise you I will get Russian dissident Mikhail Zygar on here shortly to tell us what he makes of that - and what they are saying inside Russia about this.
For now it seems the Ukrainians have the advantage in the conflict. Yet again, says Joel, you could (cynically) argue that Trump squandered his leverage over Ukraine when he had it, if he was serious about pulling off a peace - albeit not a kind of peace most of us would have condoned.
We move to Venezuela. Again, says Joel, reports that the new Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodriguez is struggling to provide the transparency about oil money that Washington asked for is another instance of where Trump squandered his leverage. He could have negotiated to return María Corina Machado the Nobel prize winner and opposition leader to lead Venezuela, thereby bringing about democracy…but no.
China? What did we get out of the China State Visit?…Er nothing…
You get the drift.
Thank you Jeanne Elbe, Don Buckter, Kerry Shaw, mary kostanski, Shannon Edrie, and many others for tuning into my live video with Joel Rubin! Join me for my next live video in the app.
