Hey Everyone,
Yesterday I had a conversation with my good friend, the Russian dissident Mikhail Zygar, and he said something that completely shocked me. It should shock you, too.
He told me his sources say that even liberals in Russia are now so tired of the war in Ukraine that a nuclear option is being discussed “daily” as a way to end it.
Yes, it’s speculation. But it’s speculation that was once confined to the fascist fringe and has now become widespread, because it’s seen as the only way out.
Putin, they believe, will never end the war in its current form. The argument goes that “a horrible end is better than endless horror.”
“Unlike Donald Trump,” he says, “no one is an optimist in Moscow.”
Let that sink in.
Zelensky May Be in Real Trouble This Time
I had reached out to Mikhail to discuss the warp-speed collapse of the US-Ukraine relationship over the past two weeks. To recap: Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky are now publicly insulting each other, and Trump is saying Russia has been “fine” on Ukraine. This comes after the US relaxed sanctions on Russia in a cynical bid to keep global gas and diesel prices down ahead of the midterm elections - and presumably to curry favor in order to secure the release of Stephen James Hubbard, which has just happened. It also comes after Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system, which Ukraine’s military relies on to hit targets inside Russia, seemed to be switched off in places (and then back on), amid confusion over whether Musk or the US government was responsible.
Mikhail’s read of Zelensky’s tongue-lashing is that it may be the only way he can hold on to his presidency. The last time he stood up to Trump, in that disastrous February 2025 Oval Office meeting, his popularity surged at home and in Europe.
He must be hoping the same thing will happen this time. But the picture is less clear.
Zelensky is now openly criticized at home. Ukraine’s prosecutor general fled after being accused of corruption, and Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s right-hand man and chief negotiator, was arrested on corruption charges.
Mikhail was careful with his language on the topic. Criticizing Zelensky, he said, “is not always pro-Putin.” Many in Kyiv believe the country’s institutions are strong enough that a new, less tarnished leader would strengthen Ukraine, not weaken it. “He’s not a sacred cow.”
But there is a darker reading of Trump’s calls for Zelensky to leave office. Putin will never sign a peace deal with Zelensky in power. Trump wants a win before the midterms. Pushing Zelensky aside is the price of Putin’s cooperation, and Trump appears willing to pay it.
Why Has Europe Removed Alisher Usmanov From Its Sanctions List?
There’s another factor muddying things. Until now, Europe’s support for Ukraine and Zelensky has been unequivocal, and its position on Russia robust.
And yet on September 22nd, the EU removed two Russian oligarchs, Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, from its sanctions list.
Mikhail is more understanding about Fridman, who, he says, was always the softer figure, someone “ready to denounce the war but never dared.”
But Usmanov is another matter. He is a member of Putin’s inner circle with deep Gazprom ties, someone Mikhail is prepared to call a war criminal. So why remove him from the sanctions list? It isn’t clear. There have been reports that the French government is trying to get two French citizens released from Azerbaijan, but nothing has been confirmed.
Put all this together, and the situation this winter in Ukraine looks bleak. Very bleak. As Mikhail puts it, it is “doomed to be a humanitarian catastrophe.”
I’m not sure I have ever conducted such a sobering live video chat on Substack.
When it comes to considering Trump’s role in all this, and his support for Putin, I highly recommend season four of The Diplomat on Netflix. I have now watched the final episode twice. I won’t spoil it, but it is a timely reminder of the necessity to resist autocrats.
Zelensky’s grip on power may be weaker than it was, and Ukrainians are entitled to debate that. But our government’s role in the latest events is despicable. I recommend Orlando’s latest substack on the sanctions waiver as a useful guide explaining why.
The full conversation with Mikhail is up on the channel. Thank you, as always, for reading.
Vicky
Thank you Tom Kudla, LeftieProf, Jeanne Elbe, An Mcgreevy, Sabrina Wood, and many others for tuning into my live video with Mikhail Zygar! Join me for my next live video in the app.
