Hey Everyone,
As you’ll hear in this conversation with my friend the Russian journalist-in-exile and fellow substacker Mikhail Zygar, New Year’s Eve is by far the biggest holiday in Russia - a time in which “magic” can happen.
It is sorely needed.
Mikhail and I chatted at lunch time, minutes after President Trump got off the phone from Russia’s President Vladimir Putin for their second long conversation in 24 hours.
Between those calls, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago and afterwards reportedly said he felt talks had gotten “90 per cent” towards a peace deal.
But just hours later Putin accused Zelensky of orchestrating a drone attack on one of his residences - which Zelensky denied. He accused Putin of making the false claim to deliberately sabotage the peace talks. Meanwhile Russia continued its march into Ukraine territory. And Putin and Trump had another long phone call.
So much for being “90 per cent” of the way towards peace.
Mikhail’s perspective on all this is, as usual, invaluable.
He explains he doesn’t think it’s likely that the Ukrainians got a drone anywhere near Putin’s residence. The most frequently-used word this year in Russia is ‘carpet” - because the ‘carpet’ is pulled over the tarmac at the airports every time the Russians sense an incoming drone attack, so it would be an astonishing event if a drone attack broke through the defenses around Putin’s home - the most fortified place in the country.
It’s also his belief Putin whiles away the minutes on their long calls sweet-talking Trump about the potential benefits of restoring trade between the two countries, which was nixed by President Biden, once Russia invaded Ukraine. Mikhail points out that any talk that involves knocking Joe Biden is, of course, music to Trump’s ears. No matter, that it sidelines talk of a ceasefire.
And he reiterates that for Trump, the chief advantage of peace would be economic. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is hugely lucrative and the US would love a way to control it. But without peace, there is no control. Thus Trump is incentivized to keep pursuing a negotiation.
So why, I asked, given Putin’s intransigence, did Zelensky talk about being 90 per cent of the way to a resolution?
Mikhail points out what a huge win it is for Zelensky to simply be at Mar-a-Lago as 2025 draws to an end, not just given the historic bumpiness of his relationship with Trump this past year. Mikhail reminds us that just a month ago, Zelensky had a political nightmare at home and had to “retire” his right-hand, Andriy Yermak, who’d become a symbol of corruption domestically.
Any sign of weakness is a boon to Putin, so it matters greatly that Zelensky is still the national leader who is recognized by Trump.
It’s also a win for Ukraine’s leader that Trump is now discussing a vastly fairer term sheet than the one that was spun out by the White House a couple months ago, which was essentially the same term sheet that Putin had first put out in 2022 at the time of the invasion - one in which Russia gained control not just of some of Ukraine’s territory but of deciding who got to run the country. It was preposterous.
Even so, Mikhail reiterates, Putin is no longer interested in pursuing that term sheet - or any other. Because he has discovered how helpful the war is to maintaining stability at home. “The difference between Putin in March 2022 and Putin today is dramatic. By now, Putin knows that he needs this war.”
So, says Mikhail, everything Putin says to Trump that insinuates he wants peace, is a performance, because he is just not interested in pursuing peace. At an price.
Towards the end of our conversation Mikhail reveals something I did not know: that Putin’s world view was greatly altered by the fate of the late Libyan dictator, Muammar Ghadaffi.
“Putin was changed forever the moment when he saw the video or different videos of Gaddafi being murdered by a mob…of angry people, angry Libyans.
So that’s his worst nightmare. He does everything to avoid that.
He knows that when Gaddafi was an aggressive dictator, he was successful and he was popular and he was strong.
When he started negotiating with Americans, he became weak, they betrayed him, and he was murdered.”
It’s a bleak end to the conversation - and the year.
But, says Mikhail, one must never give up hope.
He is right, of course.
The fight for a better, peaceful world must go on. History shows that regimes change and that pendulums swing - but not, of course, without the impetus of people who dare to dream.
And with that, I wish you a very Happy New Year.
Thank you An Mcgreevy, Change Champion, Lynn Thigpen 🇺🇦, Courtneye, Megan Johnson, and many others for tuning into my live video with Mikhail Zygar! Join me for my next live video in the app.
